Sometimes you get what you expect
Reds 1, Giants 0
It's generally a good thing when our expectations reflect reality. I got a B+ in PE once, so I didn't apply to Harvard.
But what happens when there's a gap between our expectations and reality? It’s a recipe for disappointment. You expect the Giants to score, and they haven't since Sunday.
As we sit here in the thick of Small Sample Size Season, I'm wondering: is it a fluke?
Baseball Savant is able to measure the Giants expected offense. They take all the data on how and where the Giants hit the ball, and spit out numbers that say this is what should be happening.
It's doesn't look great.
The Giants rank at or near the bottom of the league in expected batting average, slugging percentage, and a couple fun metrics abbreviated as xWOBA and xWOBACON 🥓
Again, this is all based on what a computer thinks should be happening.
What's actually happening is the Giants are outperforming all of these metrics. They're in first place, after all.
I don't take this to mean the nerds are wrong. I take it to mean the Giants have gotten a little lucky. Because sometimes expectations separate from reality and something wonderful happens.
Other times you get a reality check.
Up next: The Giants will try to score a run this afternoon, when Justin Verlander takes the mound against Nick Martinez. First pitch at 12:45 pm.